First of all.....Interesting about that "BIP" data.
In general I'd say that would work......but it might well NOT in this case.
Having seen a lot of Jorge's AB's this year, I have to say that he has just been hitting the ball HARD, period.
Granting that "impressions" aren't usually very valid, my impression is that if anything he's been UNlucky with batted balls.
If anyone has a few spare hours :-) and wants to check his percentage of "LINED OUT," I'd bet it's well above expectation.
In other words......I think his high percentage of hits/BIP reflects not "luck" but how he has actually hit the ball.
UPDATE ON WIN SHARE DATA:
Their "Batting WS" AREN'T converging yet....but we wouldn't expect that to happen when the Yanks aren't WINNING any games. The team has to WIN in order for there to be some Win Shares to spread around.
Right now (data as of 6/28):
Victor: 13.5 batting WS, 17 total
Jorge: 7.3 batting WS, 9 total
Previous (as of 6/15):
Victor: 12.5 batting WS, 15 total
Jorge: 6.8 batting WS, 10 total
To be continued.
CORRECTIONS to above post (I tried to edit, but looks like it didn't take): Jorge's TOTAL WIN SHARES for "Right Now" and "Previous" are the REVERSE of what appears up there: Total WS right now: 10 Total WS previous: 9
OK....it's getting WORSE. :-) Their basic numbers are still quite similar, but Victor is PULLING AWAY in Win Shares. Previous (as of 6/28): Victor: 13.5 batting WS, 17 total Jorge: 7.3 batting WS, 10 total (note correction from above) Now (as of 7/8): Victor: 16.1 batting WS, 20 total Jorge: 7.5 batting WS, 11 total Victor's batting WS increased 2.6 during this week and a half. (Which is UNREAL.) Jorge's barely budged.
OK, it's finally narrowing. Previous (as of 7/8): Victor: 16.1 batting WS, 20 total Jorge: 7.5 batting WS, 11 total Current (as of 7/28): Victor: 17.3 batting WS, 22 total Jorge: 10.7 batting WS, 15 total It's because the Yanks finally won some games, and since just a few Yankee players (including Jorge) have been major contributors, they get a disproportionate share of the WS.
......and now it's narrowed to where it's almost normal. I think this might be my first prediction that ever turned out true. :-) Previous (as of 7/28): Victor: 17.3 batting WS, 22 total Jorge: 10.7 batting WS, 15 total Current (as of 8/3): Victor: 16.2 batting WS, 21 total Jorge: 12.9 batting WS, 17 total You might wonder how Victor's could have DECREASED. I'm pretty sure I understand how that could be (and IMHO it's NOT a valid thing), but I won't get into it unless someone asks.....
I'm guessing it's because Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 7 games?
That would explain why a Cleveland player's win shares HAVEN'T INCREASED MUCH. But not at all why they would have DECREASED. (Right?) I think the way a guy's WS could DECREASE would be......well, I think 2 things would be needed: (a) That the team won just a very small number of games in the interim (i.e. what you said), PLUS..... (b) That OTHER GUYS ON THE TEAM piled up nicer numbers in these last few games, with the result that they would get MORE CREDIT RETROACTIVELY for past games won this year.....even though most of these guys' new numbers were in games that the team LOST. I don't know if this "phenomenon" has been discussed before....and I'm not sure it's been formally "discovered" although I imagine it must be obvious to people like Bill James. It points up what we might call a flaw in the WS system: Guys get credit for what they do in the team's LOSSES. If we were to calculate Win Shares in the most logical way, I think we would look only at the games that the team WINS. (Which would be harder.) Among the advantages would be that aberrations like THIS would be less common, although I think they'd still be possible.
The way to avoid such aberrations COMPLETELY, and theoretically I think the BEST way to do Win Shares, would be to calculate them FOR EACH GAME INDEPENDENTLY and then add the individual-game totals for each player. This way, there would only be shares for games that the team won, and also, stats achieved in one game would not affect numbers of shares awarded for other games. Of course this would be hard as heil to do........
Previous (as of 8/3): Victor: 16.2 batting WS, 21 total Jorge: 12.9 batting WS, 17 total Current (as of 8/10): Victor: 16.5 batting WS, 22 total Jorge: 13.3 batting WS, 18 total Interestingly....Victor's "batting" Win Shares are still lower than 2 weeks ago. I say that the occurrence of such a thing shows a flaw of the WS system (as per earlier post).